The news of Elon Musk’s $42-44 billion offer to purchase Twitter, and his apparent cold feet, have spread far and wide. Speculation has swirled that his offer was a politically-motivated stunt and that he never intended to actually follow-through with the deal. More recently, however, Musk has publicly demanded more information from Twitter regarding its so-called “bots” and he has publicly suggested that up to 20% of Twitter’s active user base is comprised of fake accounts, in contrast to the 5% that Twitter itself has claimed in its latest annual report. So, is Musk’s stated concern real or a coverup for cold feet?
While some have derided Musk’s demands as pretextual, he has a valid point that the number of real, daily active users on the Twitter platform – actual human eyeballs – is critical to the value of Twitter. A difference of 15% in estimates of bots is likely to be material. Twitter itself has said so.